MANILA, Philippines — The Climate Change Commission (CCC) is calling for stronger predictive governance as the country prepares for the possible intensification of the ongoing Strong El Niño into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026. The phenomenon is expected to persist through the first half of 2027.

The CCC’s approach supports President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.'s call for predictive governance, moving government beyond reactive responses by using science, data, and risk information to anticipate risks and guide decisions before impacts escalate. In his 2026 State of the Nation Address, Marcos said the government has “moved on from the reactive approach” and is “not only proactive, but predictive as well, aided by digital tools.”

The call follows the September 23 climate advisory of the Department of Science and Technology–Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA), which warned of potential impacts associated with below-normal rainfall, dry spells, and drought in some parts of the country. PAGASA also noted that localized above-normal rainfall may still occur, particularly over western areas during the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat.

CCC Vice Chairperson and Executive Director Robert E.A. Borje emphasized the need to use climate forecasts and risk information to anticipate impacts and guide timely decisions.

“Predictive governance means using the climate information available to us today to anticipate the risks we may face tomorrow. As we prepare for the potential intensification of El Niño, we must translate forecasts into timely decisions and concrete actions that protect our communities, livelihoods, and essential resources,” Borje said.

The CCC called for stronger integration of climate projections, risk assessments, and scenario-based planning into local development planning, disaster risk reduction and management, and sectoral adaptation measures. These may include water conservation and supply contingency planning, climate-informed agricultural decisions, early warning dissemination, and health preparedness, based on projected risks and local conditions.

Borje said preparedness should begin before the full impacts of prolonged dry conditions are felt, allowing institutions to identify vulnerabilities and prepare resources and interventions in advance.

“We should not wait for impacts to fully materialize before taking action. Forecasts and risk assessments can help us determine where vulnerabilities may emerge, what resources may be needed, and what measures can be put in place early,” he said.

The Commission emphasized that predictive governance requires coordinated action among national government agencies, local government units (LGUs), communities, the private sector, and other stakeholders, with climate information translated into decisions relevant to specific sectors and localities.

The CCC also stressed that immediate preparedness should be aligned with the Philippines’ National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), linking near-term climate risk reduction with longer-term resilience and sustainable development. The CCC has previously identified the NAP, NDC Implementation Plan, and National Climate Risk Management Framework as key governance instruments that support the integration of climate information into planning, investment, and decision-making.

Risk-informed investments and planning should prioritize climate-sensitive sectors, particularly water security, food production, public health, and livelihoods, while ensuring that climate information and preparedness support reach vulnerable and marginalized communities.

“Predictive governance must ultimately lead to action on the ground. Climate information must reach the people and institutions that need it and be translated into practical measures, appropriate investments, and timely support for communities,” Borje added.

While El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in various parts of the country, PAGASA’s advisory highlights the possibility of localized rainfall events. The CCC therefore urged government institutions, LGUs, communities, and other stakeholders to remain guided by official advisories and implement preparedness measures appropriate to their respective climate risks and local conditions.

The CCC continues to advance predictive, science-based, risk-informed, and inclusive climate governance, encouraging stakeholders to use climate information and risk assessments to anticipate emerging risks, strengthen preparedness, and translate forecasts into concrete measures that protect lives, livelihoods, and resources essential to sustainable development.

For more information on the CCC’s climate mainstreaming activities and partnerships, visit www.climate.gov.ph and www.facebook.com/CCCPhl.