Manila Observatory, PAGASA warn Filipinos of warmer climate and worse impacts, urge local governments to identify risks and form action plans

December 06, 2021 Monday

MANILA, 7 December 2021 — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-PAGASA) and the Manila Observatory have released a report on historical and projected annual climate extremes in the country, warning Filipinos of a warmer climate and of its worsening consequences across different sectors.
The report, titled “Philippine Climate Extremes Report 2020: Observed and Projected Climate Extremes in the Philippines to Support Informed Decisions on Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management,” presents the projected changes in 24 climate extremes indices for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5—referring to representative concentration pathway, which is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. RCP8.5 is the basis for worst-case climate change scenarios.
During its launch held during the annual observance of the 14th Global Warming and Climate Change Consciousness Week, the authors introduced the findings of the report, and tackled the consequences on agriculture, human health, water resources, environment and biodiversity, and infrastructure. The report also outlined adaptation options that may help reduce the possible impacts.
“How will the future climate of the Philippines look like based on our analysis of the climate extremes indices? Extreme temperature indices are all pointing towards a warmer climate throughout the Philippines as we go further into the future, with the RCP 8.5 scenario showing warmer temperature increases than the RCP 4.5 scenario, as expected,” said Dr. Francia Avila of Manila Observatory.
The report can be used to identify areas and sectors which are most at risk to climate extremes and thus require rapid disaster risk assessment and climate adaptation planning to minimize current and future impacts. Local government units can use this report in formulating local climate change action plans and mainstreaming of national climate change initiatives.
The report also includes the Climate Extremes Risk Analysis Matrix (CERAM), a complementary tool to Climate Information Risk Analysis Matrix (CLIRAM), that aims to help users in developing their disaster risk assessment and climate adaptation plans. Also presented during the launch was the Climate Information Map, an interactive map that allows users to access datasets on climate projection information within the country.
During the launch, representatives from national government agencies, local government, and the academe who are working on climate science shared their insights on the said report.
“We highly commend PAGASA for developing a portal where planners, local government units, and other users can easily download the data... The DHSUD, through our support to such endeavors, would welcome collaborations with national government agencies, local government units, the academe, local and international partners, CSOs, homeowners’ associations, etc., in developing and providing a sustainable, safe, and resilient human settlement for the Philippines,” said Dir. Dunstan San Vicente of the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development.
“We can help other sectors in informing them on how climate change may affect their work and in guiding them in finding solutions. We are looking forward to the successful application and the widespread dissemination and future training on the use of these tools among our local government planners, trainers, academic institutions, and other stakeholders,” said Mr. Albert Magalang of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
“I'm really happy with this kind of collaborative efforts in these climate models, on how this can be applied locally and how it can be mobilized by the local planners, the MDRRMOs, communities, especially the private sector investors in different systems like agriculture, coastal resource, and the like; fine tuning this information and its implication in terms of what crops they should plant, how should it change their strategies, and how will this affect their livelihood,” said Professor Emma Porio of the Ateneo de Manila University, also a member of the Climate Change Commission (CCC) National Panel of Technical Experts.
“In behalf of local governments, we therefore call our national leaders, and big businesses, to look into the science, innovation, and technology for our coastal and upland areas and the metropolitan cities. Explore opportunities to build the right responses for our communities, be it nature-based solutions or engineering solutions,” said Vice Mayor Alfredo Coro of Del Carmen, Siargao Islands, Surigao del Norte.
The Climate Extremes Report 2020 follows the DOST-PAGASA reports on the observed climate change (2011) and projected mean climate change (2018) in the Philippines.
The launch and webinar is a collaborative effort of Manila Observatory, DOST-PAGASA, Ateneo de Manila University, and CCC.
Watch the replay of the launch through this link: or by visiting the Facebook pages of PAGASA, Manila Observatory, or the CCC.